The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 20 January, 2025

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Trump Reverses Arctic Drilling Restrictions 

On January 20, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump repealed federal protections for Arctic oil drilling, overturning a 2023 memorandum that had barred development on 16 million acres. The executive order, reported by Reuters, was part of a broader series of day-one actions reversing Biden-era environmental policies, including restrictions on offshore oil and gas development along U.S. coastlines, such as in Alaska. (Reuters)

Take 1: This renewed push for Arctic drilling represents a critical challenge to one of Earth’s last intact ecosystems at a time when the region is already experiencing unprecedented climate stress. The order specifically targets the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), often called “America’s Serengeti,”, aiming to reverse Biden-era protections. Beyond immediate impacts on wildlife, drilling in this permafrost-rich region risks releasing greenhouse gases that have been locked in frozen soils for millennia. The policy particularly threatens the Indigenous Gwich’in people, who consider ANWR’s coastal plain sacred and rely on its caribou for subsistence and cultural practices. The move underscores the vulnerability of Arctic environmental protections to political changes in key Arctic states, raising questions about the durability of international Arctic governance frameworks amid growing strategic competition. Arctic resources are increasingly viewed through the lens of great power rivalry, as Russia expands Arctic energy development and China seeks greater influence in the region. (Fast Company, World Wildlife Fund)

Norway and France Strengthen High North Defense Cooperation

High North News reported on January 22 that Norway and France formalized closer defense cooperation in the High North through a letter of intent signed in Oslo. Defense Ministers Bjørn Arild Gram and Sébastien Lecornu agreed to expand collaboration on maritime surveillance, joint military exercises, and critical infrastructure protection in Arctic waters. The agreement also explores defense technology partnerships, including potential French participation in Norway’s frigate acquisition program and increased industrial cooperation. (High North News)

Take 2: This deepening military partnership between an Arctic and non-Arctic state raises fundamental questions about the future of High North security dynamics. While the agreement appears primarily defensive—focused on surveillance and infrastructure protection—it represents a notable shift in Arctic military presence. The introduction of French naval capabilities and military technology in Arctic waters could alter regional power balances and potentially trigger reactive posturing from other states, both Arctic and non-Arctic states. The agreement also sets a complex precedent. While European military cooperation might seem natural through NATO frameworks, it could encourage other non-Arctic states, such as China, to justify their presence through seeking similar partnerships. The risk of turning the region into a theater for broader geopolitical competition increases, potentially undermining decades of Arctic cooperation and stability. (AP News, Science Direct)

Arctic Carbon Sink Study Reveals Alarming Transformation

On January 21, The Guardian reported on research published in Nature Climate Change revealing that a third of the Arctic’s tundra, forests, and wetlands have shifted from carbon sinks into emission sources. The international study analyzed data from 200 sites between 1990 and 2020, finding that over 30% of Arctic ecosystems now emit more carbon than they store. Including wildfire emissions, this figure rises to 40%. The research was conducted by scientists at the Woodwell Climate Research Center using long-term monitoring data. (Guardian)

Take 3: This research marks a critical tipping point in understanding Arctic climate dynamics, documenting the first large-scale reversal of the region’s historical role as a carbon sink. This transformation challenges long-held assumptions about the Arctic’s capacity to regulate global carbon cycles. The shift from sink to source has profound implications for climate modeling, potentially forcing a dramatic recalculation of how quickly global climate systems could destabilize. The study suggests we may have crossed a threshold where positive feedback loops become self-reinforcing:as more Arctic carbon is released, more warming occurs, leading to further carbon release. This cascading effect could accelerate global climate change far beyond current predictions, representing a tipping point scientists have long warned about. (Nature Climate Change, Science)

U.S. and Norway Sign Arctic Space Agreement 

As reported by Arctic Today, Norway and the U.S. signed a new Technology Safeguards Agreement on January 16, 2025, enabling U.S. commercial launch technology transfers to Norway’s Andøya Spaceport, located above the Arctic Circle. The agreement, signed in Washington by U.S. Assistant Secretary C.S. Eliot Kang and Norwegian Ambassador Anniken Huitfeldt, establish protocols to prevent unauthorized dissemination of U.S. technology. The facility is set to host satellite stations, drone operations, and space launch capabilities as part of expanded bilateral defense cooperation. (Arctic Today)

Take 4: This space agreement exemplifies a broader transformation in NATO’s Arctic security posture, where traditional military capabilities are integrated with advanced technology networks. The evolution of Andøya from a conventional surveillance base to a multi-domain facility—combining space operations, drone capabilities, and satellite infrastructure—reflects NATO’s growing recognition that Arctic security demands sophisticated monitoring systems spanning air, space, and sea. The strengthening of joint security measures signals a shift from periodic military exercises to permanent, integrated defense capabilities in the High North. The agreement’s timing, alongside other recent NATO Arctic initiatives, suggests an accelerating effort to establish a robust security architecture in a region of rising strategic importance. This step represents a move toward a more coordinated and technologically advanced Western presence in the Arctic, potentially setting new standards for future security cooperation in the region. (High North News, The Barents Observer)

Greenland Seeks North American Football Membership

On January 21, 2025, Greenland’s Football Association announced plans to initiate discussions with CONCACAF, the regional sports federation for soccer in North and Central America and the Caribbean, aiming to join as its 42nd member. A delegation is scheduled to meet Secretary General Philippe Moggio in Miami on February 27. After years of unsuccessful attempts to join the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA), which requires United Nations recognition, the Arctic territory is pursuing membership in CONCACAF, which allows autonomous territories to join. Greenland’s national team, currently restricted to friendly matches, plans to arrange games against smaller CONCACAF nations this year. (Reuters)

Take 5: This pivot from European to North American football affiliation reflects broader shifts in Greenland’s identity and international positioning. The timing of this application—amid increasing geopolitical focus on Greenland and growing independence sentiments—makes it a significant indicator of evolving Arctic geopolitical dynamics. Unlike UEFA, which requires UN-recognized independence, CONCACAF’s more flexible membership criteria offers Greenland a path to international sporting recognition while maintaining its autonomous status. As global powers increasingly view Greenland through a strategic lens, its pursuit of international sporting recognition represents a broader assertion of Greenlandic identity and self-determination. While Football Association head Kenneth Kleist explicitly separates the initiative from broader geopolitical interests, the move nevertheless signals a significant step in Greenland’s institutional development. National team coach Morten Rutkjer’s emphasis on “showing that the Greenlandic people are capable” underscores how sports can serve as a platform for demonstrating self-sufficiency and capability on the international stage. (Eye on the Arctic, BBC News)