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Huxit threat: Hungarian economist warns of real possibility under PM Orbán
Huxit speculation has intensified as the Orbán administration continues to clash with the European Commission.Currently, it is running a billboard campaign criticising Ursula von der Leyen and Manfred Weber for backing the fast-tracking of Ukraine’s EU accession. At the same time, Hungary is still unable to access billions of euros in RRF and development funds due to ongoing rule-of-law concerns, fuelling further debate over whether Prime Minister Viktor Orbán might eventually lead the country out of the European Union.
Hungarian economist Zoltán Pogátsa on a possible Huxit
In an interview a week ago, Orbán stated that it was not currently worthwhile for Hungary to leave the EU, but if circumstances changed, he would take action. The newspaper Népszava asked well-known Hungarian economist Zoltán Pogátsa—who is known on social media under the nickname Pogi—for his opinion on a possible Huxit.
Mr Pogátsa outlined economic and political reasons why he believes Orbán will not lead Hungary out of the EU. Firstly, he said that, in his view, there would be no referendum on the issue. The Orbán government would decide unilaterally and would only conduct a so-called “national consultation” to gauge the views of its supporters.
However, such a move is highly unlikely. Orbán commands international attention largely because he is the prime minister of an EU member state. If Hungary were to exit the EU, his global relevance would diminish to the level of, for instance, the Prime Minister of North Macedonia.
Could Hungary become an economic satellite of Trump’s USA?
Addressing economic concerns, Mr Pogátsa explained that Hungary’s entire economic model is based on its EU membership. This is why Chinese, South Korean, and even German companies establish plants in Hungary—to avoid extra EU tariffs, customs duties, and import restrictions. If Hungary were to leave the EU, these companies would likely withdraw.
Regarding the Hungarian prime minister’s good relationship with former US President Donald Trump, Mr Pogátsa remarked that the United States could not provide meaningful support for Hungary’s economy, as Hungary has little to offer in return. Without the export products manufactured by Hungarian workers in German, Chinese, and Korean-owned factories, the country would have no competitive economic base. Consequently, becoming a Puerto Rico-like satellite of the US economy is not a realistic prospect.
Read also:
- “Dear Donald, don’t raise your hopes too high”, said PM Orbán, then criticised his own son-in-law’s luxury life
- Bloomberg: Hungary is in the EU only for money, Huxit possible? – read more HERE
Thank you for that article. It is a very logical assessment of the circumstances that will continue to tie Hungary to the EU. The comedy of the entire situation is that Hungary forever by choice remains in the EU while Fidesz forever puts up billboards of hate towards the organization. Oh how terrible “Brussels” is!
The UK remaining in the EU was also the logical choice, but it crashed out almost by accident. The referendum was offered with the full expectation that ‘remain’ would win by a comfortable margin, otherwise I believe PM David Cameron would have never taken the risk that in short order cost him his career and opened Pandora’s box. In today’s Hungary I can easily see similar circumstances arising. One should also not forget the possibility of Hungary being effectively removed from the EU. I believe that an outcome involving exit from the EU but retaining membership of the single market would be considered an optimum outcome of the government, on the basis that the tap for EU funds is unlikely to be opened again while Orban remains in power. Everyone acknowledges that single market membership is totally indispensible for Hungary.
Hi London Steve. I am not that well versed in what took place in UK public opinion but my understanding was that the migrant crisis was a primary catalyst of Brexit while for years there was a background resentment of EU regulation. That migrant crisis was in large part created by Putin’s involvement in the Syrian civil war providing support to Bashar al-Assad to use barbaric attacks on the civilian population. My understanding is that EU consensus is to wait for a change of government in Hungary rather than take action to eject Hungary. My guess, however, is that this waiting game will end in 2026. If Fidesz does not leave office the EU will conclude that it has an autocratic state in the organization that will never reform. What the EU may do in that case is have the membership collectively invoke their exits from the organization within two years time but at the same time create an EU 2.0 that will begin at the same time as EU 1.0 ends and the 2.0 will do away with veto power and may exclude Hungary.
There’s a world of difference between the UK and Hungary in terms of their existence outside the EU. The UK is the world’s 6th largest economy in 2024 outside the EU, Hungary is 58th while in the EU. The British pound is a global reserve currency, the Hungarian forint is struggling and not even comparable. The EU also needs the UK for defence and had to give concessions for a lot of reasons during Brexit negotiations, Hungary would have no such hand or position when negotiating exit terms. The UK made a mistake and has suffered from Brexit in my opinion but for Hungary it would be catastrophic. There are zero comparisons to be made.
The DEBT – to Hungary under instigation by Victor Mihaly. Orban – debt through abusive and wrongful DEBT – being on ALL heads of Hungarians, plus what it WOULD cost, if he “pulled” Hungary out of the European Union, the “exiting” COST, then the compounding Fines outstanding NOW that GROW daily on Hungary – all DEBT on the heads of Hungarians – INCOMPREHENSIBLE.
DEBT of the population of Hungary – on the heads of EVERT citizens – already at OVER or “rational” in line with Economic performance of Hungary, that is “thin straight line” – that gives STRONG indication our Economy will “fall of the cliff” – having NO factual GROWTH pattern – nothing of sustainability – that with the Borrowings of the Orban Government – the Fines/Debt to the European Union – then “exiting” costs from the European Union that Hungary can’t AVOID – GRUESOME.
Hungarians must grow in being EDUCATED and UNDERSTAND – that if Orban was to “walk away” – from the European Union – the “new age” abyss of grave un-certainty we have been right at this point in time to deal and live in and with – we “pull out” of the European Union – we commit as a country – an act of SELF Destruction.
DEBT – what Orban his Fidesz Government – population individual DEBT as it STANDS – that we can ill afford any FURTHER Debt – especially not being in the European Union.
Don’t be silly.
Hungary is not going to leave the E.U.
We should. After all, name one positive thing attributable to the E.U. in the past 10-20 years. Is Europe today safer, stronger, or richer than it was in 2010? A big, fat NO.
Instead of securing the continent’s borders from an invasion by violent third-world parasites, or taking measures to protect what’s left of Europe’s manufacturing, or even just cleaning up its own house from the endless bloat and corruption, what bold initiatives has the E.U. conceived?
Mandating that producers attach the caps to their bottles of soda so when you’re having a drink, the sticky juice gets all over your nose and face.
*slow clap*
Or mandating the cretinous “green” agenda (which is even worse for the environment than the fossil fuels), resulting in people shivering in their homes in winter and getting maimed by electric scooTURDS on the sidewalks.
*slow clap*
Or aggressively implementing ever more draconian censorship of, ahem, “misinformation” online, so its imbecility and corruption get concealed from the public eye. Or looking the other way as the globalist-socialist-fascist puppets cancel elections, seek to imprison opposition leaders, and throw people in prisons for social media posts, while coming down hard on countries like Hungary for not accepting the aforesaid illegal alien leeches. Or… – I could go on for a whole day, but you get the idea.
*slow clap*
What’s the point of free movement of people and goods/services–two pillars of the E.U.–if they’re fixing to make travel unaffordable for everyone but illegal migrants and if no-one is producing anything in Europe anymore anyway?!?
So yes, we SHOULD leave the E.U. But we won’t. For now.
This post encapsulates for me why Hungary will leave the EU, even if it doesn’t necessarily want to right now. The emotional pull of leaving is overwhelmingly strong for too many people within the Fidesz movement.
To counter your obviously passionate lambast of the EU, I’d point out that the EU is made up member states. If an illegal immigrant breaches the outer border of the EU, that’s because that member state in question failed to prevent the incursion and the fault lies with the member state, not the EU per se. You could level the accusation at the EU that by becoming a member, that country becomes a target as once inside, travel to elsewhere in the EU is easier, but it’s a corollary of having open borders within Schengen, facilitating the movements of people, goods and services, of which Hungary is a beneficiary. We could restrict movement of illegal immigrants by reintroducing border controls between member states, then any migrants that find their way into Hungary will have to remain there. Does that sound more appealing?
By dint of geography Hungary is on a transit route for illegal migration. On the eastern flank Hungary is now dependent on Romania (and Bulgaria) fulfilling its border protection duties, failing which illegal migrants will walk over the Romanian border into Hungary (and carry on the Austrian border as they have zero interest to remain in Hungary).
make the dream come true orban!
Daily News Hungary? This is a Soros-Davos venture? Wish we had Orban in UK. Maybe we will…