POLL: JOHNSON, RHODEN SET PACE FOR SOUTH DAKOTA GOVERNOR’S RACE

SOUTH DAKOTA (Stu Whitney / South Dakota News Watch) – Early voter support in the 2026 Republican primary race for South Dakota governor is focused on U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson and incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden, according to a poll of 500 registered GOP voters co-sponsored by South Dakota News Watch.

But an expected crowded field could complicate the path to victory in the primary, with 35% of the vote needed to avoid a runoff election.

The statewide survey, also sponsored by the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota, showed Johnson at 28% and Rhoden at 27%, with Attorney General Marty Jackley at 18%.

Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden polled at 4%, followed by South Dakota Speaker of the House Jon Hansen at 2%.

The number of respondents who said they were undecided was 20%. That underscores the early nature of a race in which Hansen, a Dell Rapids lawyer and anti-abortion advocate, is the only one to have officially declared his candidacy.

Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy conducted the poll of registered Republican voters April 9-11, using random selections from a telephone-matched state voter registration list that included both landline and cellphone numbers. The margin of error was no more than 4.5 percentage points.

Here are key takeaways as candidates begin planning their campaigns:

Money talks for ‘leading candidate’ in governor’s race

Johnson, elected to a fourth term in Congress in 2024, has $5.9 million in his “Friends of Dusty Johnson” campaign committee as of last filing and can shift that money toward a state race. His intention to run for governor has been well-known in state political circles for some time.

Combined with name recognition and decades of political experience, Johnson’s campaign fund makes the 48-year-old Pierre native a major player in the governor’s race, even with an incumbent in the field.

“I’m grateful to be the leading candidate for governor in the early going, but my focus is on working for our country,” Johnson told News Watch in reaction to the poll. “We’ve got a narrow window to secure conservative wins in Washington, and I plan to keep delivering. I’ll worry about the next race later.”

Mindful that other Republicans will try to portray him as too moderate or not sufficiently loyal to President Donald Trump, Johnson has aligned himself with Trump on numerous issues in 2025, including tariffs, federal spending cuts and a potential takeover of the Panama Canal.

The poll showed that Trump carries a 68% favorability rating among South Dakota Republicans voters, compared to 52% for Johnson and 40% for Rhoden.

At times Johnson has taken a more centrist tone, introducing a Wounded Knee Massacre site bill in Congress that would preserve a section of the land where hundreds of Lakota Indians were massacred by the U.S. Army in 1890.

Larry Rhoden needs to raise money, sell vision

Rhoden, a 66-year-old Meade County rancher, is a former state legislator who served as lieutenant governor to former Gov. Kristi Noem. He took the top job in late January when Noem was confirmed as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security in the Trump administration.

The latest campaign filing from his “Rhoden for Governor” campaign committee shows a balance of about $91,000. His ability to sell donors on his vision for another term and raise cash quickly will determine his viability in the race.

Julia Hellwege, an associate political science professor at USD and director of the Chiesman Center, said that Noem’s departure and Rhoden’s ascension to the top job “threw a wrench” into the race by allowing him to run as an incumbent.

“It sort of changed the landscape for the other candidates,” said Hellwege.

The poll showed that 40% of respondents had a neutral view of Rhoden, compared to 23% for Johnson. Also, 13% didn’t recognize the governor’s name, more than half of those who hadn’t heard of Johnson (6%).

Establishing a political identity separate from Noem, a challenge when taking office in the midst of a legislative session, will be a priority for Rhoden. The governor has heralded a pro-business approach as part of his “Open for Opportunity” tour, hoping to impress top-level donors with an eye toward 2026.

Like Johnson, he is widely expected to run but has not formally entered the race.

“I’ve been receiving a lot of encouragement from South Dakotans to keep doing the job of governor,” Rhoden told News Watch in reaction to the poll. “Sandy (his wife) and I are encouraged by this information — but campaigns are too long and a distraction from public service. South Dakota is a great state, and I’m focused on doing my job serving the people as governor.”

Rhoden draws well-balanced support

The poll showed that male voters support Rhoden (31%) over Johnson (28%) and Jackley (17%), while Johnson has the early lead among female voters at 29%, followed by Rhoden at 22% and Jackley at 19%.

There’s also a geographical divide. Johnson leads in the Sioux Falls Metro region (Minnehaha and Lincoln counties) with 34%, with Rhoden at 26% and Jackley at 18%. Among West River voters, Rhoden has the edge at 27%, followed by Johnson (24%) and Jackley (23%).

Hellwege noted that Rhoden stayed consistent among all four quadrants of the state, with each region between 26% and 29% in his favor, a balance that she said he could build on. Johnson showed a 10-point dip the Sioux Falls Metro (34%) and West River (24%).

Johnson has the highest share of young voters supporting him, with 35% of GOP respondents aged 18-34 saying they would vote for him if the election were held today, followed by Rhoden (32%) and Jackley (14%).

Jackley surprised by third-place result

Jackley told News Watch that he was surprised by his third-place standing in the poll, 10 points behind the leader.

The 54-year-old Sturgis native has about $520,000 in his campaign fund and is well-established in South Dakota’s political and legal communities. He previously ran for governor in 2018, losing in the Republican primary to Noem.

Jackley, who has professional ties to U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi, will work to build momentum with endorsements and support from groups such as the National Association of Attorneys General, of which he serves as vice president.

He has scheduled a major fundraiser for May 5 at the Arrowhead Country Club in Rapid City.

“I continue to receive encouragement to run for governor from South Dakotans who want a common sense conservative in the race,” Jackley told News Watch. “But right now I’m focused on keeping our streets safe and leading the fight against government corruption.”

Michael Card, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of South Dakota, also expressed surprise at Jackley’s standing in the poll.

“There’s a lot of time left, but I thought he would be a lot closer to Johnson and Rhoden,” said Card. “Rhoden is 5 points ahead of him West River, where he should be strong, and he’s not really in consideration in Sioux Falls Metro and East River/South, where he’s below the number of undecideds. It shows that crime or personal safety may not be the issue that’s on people’s minds right now.”

Jon Hansen, Toby Doeden unknown to most voters

Hansen, who announced his candidacy along with running mate Karla Lems on April 24 in Sioux Falls, is well-known to political insiders as a force behind defeating the 2024 constitutional amendment to legalize abortion in South Dakota.

The 39-year-old property rights advocate rose to the office of House speaker as part of a populist surge in Pierre stemming from the 2024 GOP primary elections.

The News Watch poll showed he has a lot of work to do to translate those efforts into a viable statewide campaign. In a section of the survey used to gauge favorability, 54% of Republican voters surveyed didn’t recognize Hansen’s name.

The poll was taken before his campaign kickoff event at the South Dakota Military Heritage Alliance, where Hansen vowed to reduce government waste and corruption in support of “grassroots patriots from all across the state.”

Name identity is also a problem for Doeden, whose Dakota First Action PAC helped boost anti-carbon pipeline efforts and send populist candidates to the state Legislature.

Doeden can self-fund campaign efforts with resources from his car dealerships and real estate holdings, but his social media outreach hasn’t boosted his profile to casual voters. Nearly 60% of poll respondents did not recognize his name.

History has shown that hard-right candidates can make waves in South Dakota Republican primaries, such as Taffy Howard’s 41% performance in the 2022 U.S. House race against Johnson. But there is typically a ceiling to such support.

“Both (Hansen and Doeden) have advantages with the MAGA (Make America Great Again) branch of the Republican Party,” said Card. “But that also means that they have people who won’t support them because of that perspective.”

Noem, Thune lead in SD favorability

The poll also shed light on the popularity and name recognition of South Dakota politicians among Republican voters.

Noem, who served as governor from 2019-2025 before leaving for her Cabinet position, had a favorable rating of 61%, which puts her at the top of the list. The 53-year-old Castlewood native also had the highest unfavorable rating at 25%.

Mason-Dixon polling allows for a neutral response (neither favorable or unfavorable). Only 14% of respondents had a neutral opinion of the former governor.

Noem’s job performance as Homeland secretary was part of a separate statewide poll that News Watch will release April 29.

The next highest favorability rating (56%) among GOP voters belonged to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who has worked closely with the Trump administration since the president took office. Thune’s unfavorable rating was the lowest among those polled, at 8.6%.

Thune was followed in favorability by U.S. Sen. Mike Rounds (53%), who is expected to run to keep his Senate seat in 2026. He was followed by Jackley (53%), Johnson (52%), Rhoden (40%), Hansen (12%) and Doeden (10%).

The poll showed Johnson with an unfavorable rating of 19% within the party, compared to 7% for Rhoden and 10% for Jackley.

“There’s always the inside-the-GOP question about some voters’ concerns about Dusty, which he has tried to address with symbolic support of Trump,” said Hellwege. “I think there’s also an inherent mistrust of Washington and members of Congress generally, which could be part of what we’re seeing.”

 

WOMAN SENT TO PRISON FOR ROLE IN DRUG CARTEL

PIERRE, S.D. – A woman has been sentenced to federal prison for her part in a Mexican cartel’s criminal conspiracy to distribute methamphetamine in South Dakota on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation and in Rapid City.

Casey Lopez, age 51, Chadron, NE, was sentenced to serve 20 years, followed by five years of supervised release, by U.S. District Judge Karen Schreier. A federal grand jury indicted Lopez in February 2024 and she pleaded guilty on January 17, 2025.

According to a statement from U.S. Attorney for South Dakota Allison Ramsdell, “Lopez and others distributed significant amounts of methamphetamine in Pine Ridge and Rapid City.”

Ramsdell described Lopez as “a leader in the conspiracy, setting prices, organizing the distribution, and enabling a Mexican cartel to gain inroads into the Pine Ridge Reservation.”

Former South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem in a Jan. 31, 2024, speech to state lawmakers claimed that Mexican drug cartels were operating on tribal reservations within the state. She subsequently was banned from all nine reservations by their tribal governments.

Noem resigned as governor in January, after the U.S. Senate confirmed her as the new federal Homeland Security secretary in the Trump administration. This week, Mexico’s president struck back at ads Secretary Noem has been running that warn migrants not to enter the U.S. illegally, according to CNN.

During the April 21 sentencing of Lopez, according to U.S. Attorney Ramsdell, “Judge Schreier denounced how Lopez’ actions severely damaged the community. Judge Schreier also noted the drugs Lopez was distributing came from Mexican cartels and constituted 100% pure methamphetamine.”

Lopez was immediately remanded to federal custody.

 

FORMER OGLALA SIOUX PRESIDENT LOSES CRIMINAL APPEAL

PINE RIDGE, S.D. (Johnathan Ellis / The Dakota Scout) – A federal appeals court Thursday rejected an appeal from the former president of the Oglala Sioux Tribe who had been convicted of embezzling from the tribe, wire fraud and larceny.

The three-judge panel on the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals District of South Dakota upheld the nearly two-year sentence given to Julian Bear Runner, as well as a restitution order that he repay what he stole from the tribe. The opinion, written by Judge Duane Benton, was unanimous.

Bear Runner, 39, is currently serving his 22-month sentence at a minimum-security facility in Texarkana, Texas, according to federal inmate records. He is scheduled to be released on July 18.

Bear Runner served as the tribal president from December 2018 to December 2020. During his tenure, he made headlines over his clashes with former Gov. Kristi Noem over her Covid-19 pandemic policies, and the tribe issued multiple lockdowns in 2020. In September of that year, the Tribal Council unsuccessfully attempted to impeach him after a young man claimed he’s had a sexual relationship with Bear Runner starting when he was 17. Bear Runner failed to win a second term in that year’s tribal election.

Before taking office, he learned about the tribe’s travel policy. A travel request required a person seeking advance funding to state the destination, dates and purpose for the trip before funding would be available. The policy included a stipulation requiring travelers who took advance funds for a trip to reimburse those funds if the travel didn’t occur.

Bear Runner requested authorizations from tribal travel specialists for trips to New Mexico, Montana, Ohio, North Carolina, California, New York and Arizona, claiming he was acting on tribal business. On at least two of those trips, he presented during Tribal Council meetings while purportedly visiting an out-of-state reservation.

In reality, he took more than $80,000 in travel advances and gambled at the Prairie Wind Casino in Pine Ridge while staying in area hotels.

A grand jury indicted him in 2022 and a jury found him guilty on all counts.

In his appeal, Bear Runner argued that the government failed to prove requisite criminal intent for the crimes. He also argued the district judge committed procedural and substantive errors in his sentencing.

He argued that his intent to defraud the tribe was negated because he expected any travel overpayments to be deducted from his tribal pay. His expectation of a payroll deduction disproved intent to defraud the tribe.

But during the trial, a travel specialist testified that it was Bear Runner’s responsibility to return unused advances.

The evidence, Benton wrote, showed he used the procedures to “manipulate the approval process in his favor” by pressuring staff.

“He visited the travel office after hours, and ‘hover[ed] over’ specialists, rushing them to approve his requests,” Benton wrote. “The Tribe’s accounts-payable supervisor, for example, testified that Bear Runner arrived afterhours ‘wanting to push [travel authorizations] through’ in a way that made her feel ‘not too well.’ Multiple employees testified they felt pressured to sign his forms, or risk losing their jobs. Bear Runner’s administrative assistant further testified that she was asked to close out travel reports without the required receipts and that Bear Runner directed her to draft memos justifying his travel.”

The court further rejected his appeal that errors were committed in his sentencing, with Benton writing, “This argument fails.”

 

ADVOCATES SAY MEDICINE FOR OPIOID USE SAVES LIVES BUT SOUTH DAKOTA DOCTORS HESITATE TO PRESCRIBE IT

SOUTH DAKOTA (Makenzie Huber / South Dakota Searchlight) – Megan Cantone stumbled out of the hospital in tears from the pain.

She sought treatment for an infection from drug use. Medical professionals at the Denver hospital provided the treatment, but as Cantone recalls, it came with a heavy dose of judgment.

A doctor refused to numb her wound after recognizing it as being from illicit drug use, she said. The pain was supposed to convince her “never to shove a needle in your arm again,” Cantone said.

“I told my husband I feel like a complete failure, like a terrible person,” Cantone said. “That’s almost when a person could kill themselves because you’re at the lowest of your low and somebody treats you like that.”

Earlier that week, a nurse at a different hospital confronted her while treating another infection. The nurse told Cantone she’d end up killing herself and “pretty much told me I was disgusting,” Cantone remembers.

Cantone began experimenting with drugs in high school, but her opioid use started when she attended cosmetology and esthiology school in the Twin Cities. Her use escalated to meth and heroin over the years.

A doctor stepped in to defend Cantone, scolding the nurse. The doctor suggested medication to help her stop opioid use; he said she suffered from a medical disorder that could be treated.

As the opioid epidemic continues in South Dakota, physicians can offer medications for opioid use disorder. But the practice — made possible by a change to federal law in 2022 — is held back in South Dakota because of stigmas attached to it, advocates say. Stigmas like Cantone experienced, and what she still experiences in South Dakota today.

Cantone didn’t accept the medication from the emergency room doctor. She grappled with self-loathing. But the doctor’s kindness and offer stuck with her.

Months later, after near-death experiences and the realization she was pregnant, Cantone accepted a prescription and delivered a healthy baby girl. The medication straightened a winding path toward recovery.

The 35-year-old mother and wife, who lives in Sioux Falls, credits her Christian faith and the medication for her recovery. She will celebrate six years of sobriety in May.

Training providers to ‘recognize bravery’

Buprenorphine prescriptions in South Dakota tripled in the last five years, increasing from about 2,500 at the start of 2019 to around 7,500 at the end of 2024. The drug reduces opioid withdrawal symptoms and cravings.

Naloxone is available in some public spaces throughout South Dakota, especially in Sioux Falls and Rapid City. It prevents opioid overdoses by blocking receptor cells.

Cantone took a Suboxone prescription for years, which is a drug that contains both buprenorphine and naloxone to treat opioid use disorder. Now she takes buprenorphine.

The increased access to both medications is heartening for Craig Uthe, a family physician at Sanford and local spokesman for the national Opioid Response Network. The Mainstreaming Addiction Treatment Act eliminated a federal waiver requirement for prescribing buprenorphine. But physicians need more education on the prescriptions, he said.

“We didn’t have that many people prescribing buprenorphine before, and we still don’t,” Uthe said. “We have a lot of people still prescribing opioids but not prescribing buprenorphine.”

Opioids are prescribed for pain management but can be addictive, especially for patients with chronic pain, Uthe said. South Dakota opioid prescription counts in 2024 stood at 437,431.

Of the top 10 controlled substances prescribed to South Dakota patients in 2024, opioids claimed three spots, according to the state’s prescription drug monitoring program data. Two of the three drugs — methylphenidate and oxycodone — moved up in the rankings to fourth and sixth most prescribed controlled substances. Hydrocodone retained its number one spot.

The state and health systems are gathering data to measure how much buprenorphine is prescribed.

“If we see a county with high overdose numbers, we’d like to see a higher amount of buprenorphine prescribed,” Uthe said. “How can we, as the state Health Department or as health care systems, try to place a resource where there is the greatest need?”

South Dakota Health Department Secretary Melissa Magstadt said medical providers should make it a “prescribing habit” to prescribe naloxone for each opioid prescription they write. Overdose victims do not always suffer from opioid use disorder, she said.

“I’ve seen very well-meaning patients who took one too many doses or maybe forgot they took a dose or didn’t realize they had two different medications that had opioids in them,” Magstadt said.

She said it’ll likely take years for prescriber behaviors to change.

In 2023, South Dakota reported the second lowest overdose death rate in the nation at 11.2 deaths per 100,000 residents, according to the latest data available.

Ninety-five South Dakotans in 2023 died from drug overdoses, 47 of which were from opioids. In 2024, 90 South Dakotans died from drug overdoses, 36 of which were from opioids, according to the state Health Department.

Although most overdose deaths are among white residents, Native Americans are disproportionately affected. Native Americans die from overdoses at a rate of 26.6 per 100,000 — more than four times the rate among white South Dakotans, according to the State Unintentional Drug Overdose Reporting System.

Sioux Falls nonprofit Emily’s Hope partners with emergency departments. Physicians connect patients with the nonprofit, which works to connect them to medication and other treatment services, said Angela Kennecke, founder and CEO. Kennecke’s daughter, Emily, died of a fentanyl overdose, laced in heroin she injected. Her family was planning to enroll her into a treatment program when she died in May 2018.

Medication is the “gold star” for treatment, Kennecke said. Treating opioid use disorder without medication can be more harmful than no treatment, according to a Yale study published in the Drug and Alcohol Dependence journal in 2024.

“That is our first line of defense in getting people to feel better, to reduce cravings and get them the help they need,” Kennecke said.

Loretta Bryan, a registered nurse focused on clinical improvement within the South Dakota Association of Healthcare Organizations, educates medical providers on opioid use disorder, medications and how to engage with patients.

Her work includes “motivational interviewing techniques” to create authentic conversations with patients and improve screening.

“It takes a lot of bravery to walk through those doors and admit you’re struggling,” Bryan said. “Finding those words to recognize that bravery and having those in your back pocket is helpful.”

Expanding opioid use disorder treatment infrastructure

Access to medications for opioid use disorder is growing in clinics across the state, but not as fast as needed, Uthe said. The focus remains in emergency rooms and on harm reduction. Aside from clinics dedicated to behavioral health, Uthe said, family physicians and urgent care doctors should be comfortable prescribing the medications.

“We don’t have the infrastructure in place to address that need at the moment,” he said.

Lewis and Clark Behavioral Health Services in Yankton runs a telehealth behavioral health program focused on opioid use, with two outreach sites in Pierre and Huron. Rapid City-based Project Recovery is an addiction recovery clinic for opioids, alcohol and stimulant use with satellite clinics in Sioux Falls, Sisseton and Pine Ridge.

State funds to combat opioid use in the state support both programs.

Kendra Joswiak, clinical practice director at Project Recovery, said the organization treated 1,100 people for opioid use disorder in 2024. Of those treated without medication, about 90% will use again, she said, comparing medication for opioid use disorder to insulin for diabetes patients.

“If we had something as good for cancer as we do for opioid use disorder, we’d say we cured cancer,” Joswiak said.

Patients continue to face stigma after years of sobriety

Cantone continues to feel judged when she shares her history with medical professionals, pharmacists, friends and family.

She felt “icky” when she first ordered her prescription at a pharmacy when she moved back to South Dakota in 2020. Medication for opioid use disorder isn’t as common or well known in South Dakota as it is in Denver, she said.

“They looked at me like I was a drug addict or from Mars,” she recalled.

Friends and family have told her she’s switching one addiction for another. But medical professionals say the prescription drugs help restore balance to parts of the brain affected by addiction, allowing patients’ brains to heal without cravings or withdrawal symptoms.

The doubt and stigma undercut the pride and hard work it took to earn Cantone’s sobriety. But she knows people who struggle with substance use disorder are more than what others see.

“As much as we worry about what others think, what matters is you being healthy, getting your life together, staying alive and getting the help you need,” Cantone said. “Whether it’s medication or counseling or cutting cold turkey. You need to get yourself better and cancel out that noise.”