MOSCOW, April 16. /TASS/. The launch capabilities for developing a satellite cluster of the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) are most likely to be provided by SpaceX, the company founded by Elon Musk, Alexander Stepanov, a military expert at the Institute of Law and National Security of the Russian Academy of Sciences, has told TASS.
As Handelsblatt newspaper reported earlier, the Bundeswehr aims to have its own satellite cluster up and running by 2029, which could eventually expand into a network of hundreds of satellites. It has been suggested that up to three satellite groups, each serving a distinct function (such as communications, reconnaissance, or Earth observation) or equipped with combined (multispectral) capabilities may be created. The estimated cost for developing a single cluster could reach up to 10 billion euros.
"According to public statements from Bundeswehr officials, various options are being explored for the potential creation of a cluster to meet the increasing demand for national reconnaissance capabilities from space," Stepanov stated. "The only question is who will provide the launch capabilities for the Bundeswehr. All indications suggest that this is another in a series of SpaceX's initiatives to expand its commercial reach at the expense of European clients," said Stepanov, who also serves as a senior researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
German space industry’s dependence on US
Stepanov noted that Germany's technological sovereignty in the realm of space communications and reconnaissance is heavily reliant on external industrial capabilities, particularly those of US industry players. He attributes part of this dependency to the fact that many German military experts sought refuge in the United States after the fall of Hitler's regime. This occurred as part of Operation Paperclip - a secret US program initiated in 1945 to relocate German scientists, engineers, and technicians to the US "Wernher von Braun, who joined the NSDAP in 1937 and became an SS Sturmbannfuehrer, quietly contributed to the US space industry after the defeat of the Third Reich, seemingly forgetting about his homeland," he remarked.
Stepanov emphasized that most intelligence reaches the Bundeswehr's Space Command headquarters through partner channels from the United States. The Bundeswehr's current reconnaissance cluster, consisting of five identical SAR-Lupe satellites developed by the German company OHB-System, is now outdated. Deployed in 2008, these satellites were designed for a service life of ten years. By now they are well past the expiration date.
Additionally, their memory capacity is limited to just 128 GB, allowing for no more than 30 images per day. In contrast, the Starlink satellite constellation transmits over 42 petabytes of data daily - an equivalent to 28 million hours of high-resolution video - while the Rocket Lab's PlanetScope constellation, comprising around 130 satellites, scans 200 million square kilometers of the Earth's surface each day. Although German satellites can provide high-resolution images from nearly all regions of the world, they do so infrequently; communication is only possible when the satellite is in the direct line of sight. The image transmission speed is approximately 11 hours, yet 95% of requests require 19 hours for fulfillment.
Given the lack of its own launch capabilities, Stepanov explains, "Berlin is compelled to rely on outsourcing to [entrepreneur] Elon Musk." The constellation of three SARah satellites - whose first unit was launched into orbit in 2022 with the SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket - was expected to be fully deployed by the end of 2024. In December 2023, a Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket carrying the SARah-2 and SARah-3 radar satellites was launched from the US Vandenberg Space Force Base for the German Ministry of Defense. However, these satellites have not been activated since their launch. The official reason was inadequate testing prior to the mission.
Distributed Cluster
In this context, Stepanov pointed to the involvement of the French satellite telecommunications company Eutelsat, which has controlled the only operational global cluster of low-Earth orbit satellites, aside from Starlink, since its merger with the British company OneWeb in 2023. According to Eva Berneke, the head of Eutelsat's German division, France is already implementing an alternative satellite communications project for Ukraine, where approximately 1,000 Eutelsat terminals are currently in use. In the coming weeks, this number may increase by an additional 5,000-10,000. Berneke also told Bloomberg there were plans to deliver 40,000 communication terminals to Ukraine. Interestingly, Reuters has reported that Germany is funding an alternative to Starlink for Ukraine amid "worsening relations with Musk" and "US President Donald Trump's more hostile stance on Ukraine."
However, Stepanov noted that Eutelsat does not manufacture the terminals themselves; they are supplied by the South Korean contractor Intellian Technologies, Inc., which is known to have provided satellite antennas for SpaceX. The company collaborates with the United States in various domains; in 2023, it unveiled a terminal developed in partnership with the US Navy that allows simultaneous communication with commercial Ka-band satellites and the military's Wideband Global Satcom (WGS) cluster used by the US and several allied nations.
Stepanov concludes that European leaders aim to militarize the Earth’s orbit and maximize their space reconnaissance capabilities, not only in the context of the Ukrainian conflict but also as part of a broader escalation in Russia’s border regions. They are pursuing these goals publicly while relying on American industrial capabilities. "All of this constitutes a single technological distributed cluster, where the participants may publicly disassociate and pursue their own tracks, but, in reality, they complement each other's capabilities, sharing common goals and objectives - primarily the suppression of competitors by any means available," Stepanov summarized.