Gold Digger: Gold is cool in a crisis and the history books prove it

  • Gold tends to be cool in a crisis
  • TD Cowen analysis suggests gold equities outperformed the broader market by 16-24% in economic shocks since the year 2000
  • Alice Queen and Leeuwin Metals among this week’s top gold gainers

 

Gold has once again proven itself cool in a crisis.

We don’t need to regale you of all the tales you’ve read many times this week, including no doubt in Eddy Sunarto and Phoebe Shields’ wonderful Lunch Wrap and Closing Bell columns, about the inferno which has engulfed equity markets this week on account of one President Trump.

In a nutshell. This.

Thanks KB.

Gold’s more of a chill guy though, and as the world’s been burning bullion again crashed through record highs on Thursday. We’re now at US$3215/oz, or $5164/oz Aussie for those of us whose toilets drain the right way.

Wild times. Pic: Kitco

This is all little surprise to the analysts at TD Cowen in the States.

Gold observers Wayne Lam, Steven Green and Kulvir Gill say gold has typically shone in previous crises. While gold miners haven’t done so well in the immediate aftermath of a shock, they tend to outperform in the wash-up.

“Looking at three-month performance following an economic shock, we highlight past outperformance of gold equities vs. the S&P 500, including the COVID-19 period (+16% vs. SPX), Bear Stearns collapse (+22%), and the LTCM crisis (+24%),” Lam and his crew said in a note this week.

“Lastly, investor preference for gold as a relative safe haven has previously driven spikes in the gold/silver ratio, including the Global Financial Crisis (83x), COVID-19 (114x), and current U.S. tariffs (103x), with reversion in the months following as volatility subsides.”

 

Gold and gold miners outperform in times of crisis. Pic: TD Cowen

More interest to come

While gold may be knocking the lights out as near on everything hides for cover, generalist money is still favouring other areas of the market.

That suggests there’s plenty of growth left in the recently high-performing gold equities market, TD’s analysts say.

“We continue to view tepid investor interest in gold equities, with $2.6bln in outflows from the GDX/GDXJ in Q1/25 and $5.3bln over the past year despite an ~$870/oz increase in gold price,” they said.

“In addition, while current precious metals weighting in the S&P/TSX has increased 2.2% YTD to 9.6%, this sits well below the high of 12.7% seen in mid-2020, with the current gold price $1,000/oz+ higher vs. prior levels.

“We view investors as underweight precious metals but we have seen a marked uptick in generalist interest evaluating greater allocation of capital back into the space.”

The North American focused GDX ETF traded 9% down last Friday when the tariffs really hit.

But TD suggests that leaves global gold miners at a valuation of just 0.7x NAV, meaning valuations are attractive despite record high prices.

They think prices of just US$2492/oz are priced into gold equities in North America.

M&A will be a continuing focus, as will ramping up shareholder returns.

“Key themes through our recent marketing include discounted equity valuations, capital returns, and consolidation,” the analysts said.

“Generalist interest has increased, but remains cautious amidst market uncertainty, with discussions around capital allocation strategies and a potential increase in shareholder returns to incentivise non-resource investors back into the space.”

 

Winners & Losers

Here’s how ASX-listed precious metals stocks are performing:

WordPress Table

 

Alice Queen (ASX:AQX)

Alice Queen’s main game is the Viani project, located on the island of Vanua Levu in Fiji, where in late March the company confirmed the continuity of high-grade epithermal gold at the Dakuniba prospect from surface to a depth of 175m.

The first diamond hole at the prospect, mapped over 3km of low-sulphidation epithermal gold mineralisation, returned intersected several zones from 103.5 to 166.88m including 1.25m grading 2.24g/t gold and 12.48g/t silver from 107.9m and 1.9m at 8.52g/t gold and 13.1g/t silver from 144.2m.

A follow-up hole proved the depth continuity of this zone 80m deeper after returning a top assay of 4.14m at 6.13g/t gold and 9.42g/t silver from 195.76m, including 0.58m at 26.4g/t gold and 39.7g/t silver and 0.80m at 11.4g/t gold and 6.52g/t silver.

Assays are awaited for a third diamond hole that is testing another 100m below that, with drilling and other exploration works planned elsewhere at the Sabeto project in Fiji.

Alice Queen also boast over 500,000oz of gold resources at its Horn Island project in Queensland and two exploration projects in NSW’s Lachlan Fold Belt.

 

Leeuwin Metals (ASX:LM1)

Leeuwin Metals surged in the past week after securing a deal to acquire Ramelius Resources’ (ASX:RMS) Marda gold project.

It’s already got a host of intercepts outside of mined areas for LM1 to follow up, with the mine – previously a satellite for RMS’ mothballed Edna May gold mine – not passing the disclosure muster in the warehouse of the $3bn gold miner.

With Leeuwin counting Marda as its main game, the 120km project 120km north of Southern Cross will get the love and attention it deserves.

Leeuwin shares rose around 60% over five trading days to Thursday, and remain 120% higher over the past six months despite a Friday blow off.

Among the observers keenly watching LM1’s progress is Lowell Resources Fund CIO and Ten Bagger expert John Forwood.

See his thoughts on the explorer below.

 

READ: Ten Bagger: The tailwinds for gold miners keep gathering pace

 

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Alice Queen and Leeuwin Metals are Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article.

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